Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 12 | 2 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox defeated the Detroit Tigers 7-3 at Fenway Park on May 31, 2024, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win from 55 percent before first pitch to a near-certain 100 percent by the final out. Detroit drew first blood with a run in the top of the first, but the game turned decisively in the bottom of the fourth inning, when the Red Sox sent a wave through the lineup against Kenta Maeda that effectively ended any competitive tension.
The bottom of the fourth was the hinge point of the contest. Ceddanne Rafaela delivered the single most impactful play of the game, a home run off Maeda that swung win probability 27.4 percentage points in Boston's favor and stood as the defining moment of the evening. The inning continued to pile on Maeda, as Dominic Smith added a double worth 7.1 percentage points and Vaughn Grissom followed with a single that moved the needle another 9.9 points. Rafael Devers also contributed a double in the frame, adding 7.3 percentage points. Detroit's David Hamilton struck out in that same inning, a sequence-damaging swing of minus 7.2 percentage points that reflected how close Boston came to extending further. The four-run fourth gave the Red Sox a lead they never surrendered, and they added single runs in the fifth and sixth before Detroit pushed across two in the eighth in what amounted to cosmetic damage against a closed game.
On the mound, Tanner Houck was the standout performer among pitchers, contributing plus 15.6 percentage points of win probability in what the DiamondIQ model identified as the most impactful pitching performance of the night. Rafaela finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 25.3 percent, with a RE24 of plus 3.3, reflecting both the timing and the run-value weight of his contributions. Smith and Grissom also registered meaningful positive WPA figures, reinforcing that Boston's offense distributed its damage broadly through the lineup even as Rafaela's home run defined the outcome.