MLB Recap · May 31, 2024

Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

COL4
Final
LAD1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
COL003100000470
LAD000000010151

The Story

The Colorado Rockies handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 4-1 defeat at Dodger Stadium on May 31, 2024, completing a game that defied the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 75 percent home win probability for Los Angeles. The Rockies did their damage early and held on comfortably, scoring three runs in the third inning and adding one more in the fourth against Walker Buehler before the Dodgers managed a lone run in the bottom of the eighth.

The decisive sequence came in the top of the third, where Brendan Rodgers delivered a single off Buehler that swung win probability 19.6 percent in Colorado's favor, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Kris Bryant followed with a single of his own in the same frame, contributing a 7.3 percent win-probability swing, and the Rockies piled on in the fourth when Ezequiel Tovar launched a home run off Buehler worth 7.8 percent in win-probability terms. On the other side, Mookie Betts grounded into a double play in the bottom of the eighth off Victor Vodnik, a swing of negative 13.1 percent that extinguished what remained of Los Angeles's comeback chances.

Brendan Rodgers finished as the game's top offensive contributor by WPA at plus 24.3 percent with an RE24 of plus 1.1, while Tovar posted plus 10.1 percent WPA and a plus 1.2 RE24. On the mound, Dakota Hudson was the standout performer, accumulating plus 27.7 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, with Victor Vodnik and Jalen Beeks adding plus 5.0 and plus 2.0 percent respectively in support.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025COL bats firstFinalLAD win %COL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 75.4% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Brendan Rodgers Single
Top 3rd · off Walker Buehler
+19.6%
Mookie Betts Grounded Into DP
Bot 8th · off Victor Vodnik
-13.1%
Ezequiel Tovar Home Run
Top 4th · off Walker Buehler
+7.8%
Kris Bryant Single
Top 3rd · off Walker Buehler
+7.3%
Jason Heyward Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Dakota Hudson
-7.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Brendan Rodgers+24.3%+1.1 RE24
Ezequiel Tovar+10.1%+1.2 RE24
Kris Bryant+6.7%-0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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