Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

Baltimore cruised to a 6-1 victory over Boston at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 29, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the Orioles a 68% chance of winning before that figure climbed steadily to 100% by the final out. The game was effectively decided in the second inning, when Baltimore sent five runs across the plate against Kutter Crawford to turn a scoreless contest into an early rout. The single most decisive moment came when Gunnar Henderson launched a home run off Crawford that swung win probability by 23.7 percentage points in Baltimore's favor, essentially removing any realistic path to a Boston comeback. Ramón Urías followed with a single that added another 6.1 percentage points to the Orioles' advantage, compounding the damage Crawford absorbed in that pivotal frame.

Henderson finished as the game's standout performer by a considerable margin, posting a WPA of plus-22.7% and an RE24 of plus-3.1, reflecting both the timing and the run-environment value of his contributions. Urías was the second-most impactful bat, generating plus-8.6% WPA and plus-2.2 RE24, while Ryan Mountcastle added plus-4.0% WPA to round out the Baltimore offensive leaders. Boston's David Hamilton appeared in two of the game's notable swing plays, but in opposite directions: a pickoff caught stealing at third base in the top of the second added 4.3 percentage points to Baltimore's win probability, and a lineout in the seventh cost Boston 4.1 percentage points, underscoring his difficult night. Corbin Burnes was the top-credited pitcher, contributing plus-4.9% WPA as he kept Boston's offense in check throughout his outing.