Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals handed the Atlanta Braves a 7-2 defeat at Truist Park on May 29, 2024, a result that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 66 percent pre-game home win probability for Atlanta, ultimately pushing that figure to zero. Washington's offense was largely quiet through four innings before breaking the game open in the fifth, when Lane Thomas delivered the decisive blow against Spencer Schwellenbach — a home run that swung win probability 28.4 points in Washington's favor. Joey Gallo's double in the same frame, worth plus-7.7 percent in win probability, helped extend the rally and put the Nationals firmly in control before the sixth inning even began.

Washington added to its lead in the top of the sixth when Jacob Young's single off Aaron Bummer produced a 15.2-point swing in Washington's favor, the second-largest play of the night and one that effectively sealed Atlanta's fate. The Braves offered some resistance — Marcell Ozuna's single off MacKenzie Gore in the third was worth plus-8.2 percent for Atlanta, and Matt Olson's double off Gore in the sixth added another plus-8.3 percent — but neither moment translated into sustained offense against the Washington pitching staff.

Lane Thomas finished as the game's most impactful individual, posting a plus-31.9 percent WPA and plus-2.9 RE24, while Jacob Young's evening contribution reached plus-16.5 percent WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. On the pitching side, MacKenzie Gore led Washington's staff with a plus-9.2 percent WPA, supported by Hunter Harvey at plus-8.0 percent and Dylan Floro at plus-6.7 percent. Austin Riley was Atlanta's top batter at plus-3.5 percent WPA, but the Braves' lineup collectively could not overcome Washington's fifth-inning outburst, which supplied three of the Nationals' seven runs in a 13-hit performance.