MLB Recap · May 29, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

AZ1
Final
TEX6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ000000001190
TEX00112002-680

The Story

The Texas Rangers handled the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-1 at Globe Life Field on May 29, 2024, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Texas win from 57% before the first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Rangers scored in five different innings and never trailed, building their lead methodically against Arizona starter Ryne Nelson, who absorbed damage throughout the middle frames.

The decisive sequence came in the third inning, when Jonah Heim's double off Nelson shifted win probability 12.4 points in Texas's favor, though the Rangers' best single moment belonged to Corey Seager. His fifth-inning home run off Nelson added 14.6 percentage points to Texas's win probability, the largest single play swing of the game, and cemented what had been a slim advantage into a commanding lead. Arizona's most damaging moment came in the top of the third, when Lourdes Gurriel Jr. hit into a forceout off Dane Dunning, a play that swung win probability 8.0 points against the Diamondbacks and ended a potential rally before it could materialize.

Seager finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-15.1 with a RE24 of plus-1.6, while Heim supported him at plus-10.8 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. On the mound, Dunning was the clear standout, posting a team-best plus-18.5 WPA as he neutralized an Arizona lineup that finished with nine hits but managed only a single run, that coming in a meaningless ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model favored the Rangers entering the game, and Dunning, Seager, and Heim gave it every reason to hold that lean from start to finish.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalTEX win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 56.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Corey Seager Home Run
Bot 5th · off Ryne Nelson
+14.6%
Jonah Heim Double
Bot 3rd · off Ryne Nelson
+12.4%
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. Forceout
Top 3rd · off Dane Dunning
-8.0%
Travis Jankowski Strikeout
Bot 3rd · off Ryne Nelson
-5.5%
Leody Taveras Single
Bot 4th · off Ryne Nelson
+5.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Corey Seager+15.1%+1.6 RE24
Jonah Heim+10.8%+1.1 RE24
Corbin Carroll+4.0%+0.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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