Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 7-4 at JetBlue Park on March 5, 2024, in a game that turned decisively in the third inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with Boston holding a 54% win probability as the home side, and that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100% by the final out. The pivotal sequence arrived in the bottom of the third, when Tyler O'Neill connected on a home run off Ryan Pepiot, a swing that added 19.3% to Boston's win probability. Enmanuel Valdez followed with a triple, pushing another 9.4% in Boston's favor and capping a four-run frame that effectively wrested control of the game. Tampa Bay had briefly threatened in the top half of that same inning, when Jonathan Aranda's double off Garrett Whitlock added 16.9% to the Rays' win probability, but Boston's answer in the bottom half was swift and decisive.

O'Neill finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, accumulating a WPA of plus-30.2% and an RE24 of plus-3.0, while Valdez was nearly as influential at plus-23.9% WPA and plus-2.9 RE24. Aranda led Tampa Bay's offensive contributors at plus-13.8% WPA despite the loss. José Caballero added a home run off Chris Murphy in the top of the fifth for an 11.1% boost, and an Alex Jackson walk in the top of the sixth carried another 9.4% swing, though neither proved enough for the Rays to overcome the deficit. On the mound, Ryan Zeferjahn was Boston's most valuable arm, generating plus-25.6% WPA in relief, with Brennan Bernardino and Jorge Benitez adding smaller but meaningful contributions to close out the win.