Miami Marlins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins shutout the Houston Astros 2-0 on March 5, 2024, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability to zero by the final out. The game was a pitching-dominated affair through seven innings, with neither side generating a run before the Marlins broke through in the eighth on a home run by Jonah Bride off Misael Tamarez, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 18.7 percent in Miami's favor. The Astros had a chance to respond in the bottom half of the eighth, but Joey Loperfido's strikeout against Bryan Hoeing represented the biggest negative swing for Houston on the night, costing the home side 16.5 percentage points of win probability. Miami added an insurance run in the ninth, and when Trey Cabbage grounded out against Vladimir Gutierrez to close the frame, it produced an 11.1 percent favorable swing for the Marlins, effectively sealing the outcome.

On the offensive side, Bride led Miami's batters with a plus 13.6 percent WPA and plus 0.6 RE24, his home run serving as the lone decisive blow of the contest. César Salazar contributed plus 8.6 percent WPA and plus 0.4 RE24, while Javier Sanoja added plus 8.3 percent WPA alongside a team-best plus 0.8 RE24. The pitching staff was equally sharp, with Ryan Weathers posting the highest WPA among all pitchers at plus 24.3 percent, followed closely by Bryan Hoeing at plus 23.3 percent. George Soriano added plus 8.3 percent WPA in relief to complete the shutout, limiting Houston to three hits across nine innings while the model leans toward crediting the Miami pitching staff as the defining factor in this low-scoring spring training result.