St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 1-0 on March 4, 2024, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with a single run in the bottom of the fourth inning proving to be all the Nationals needed. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Washington a 54% chance of winning and closed at 100% following a Cardinals offense that managed six hits but could not convert against a Nationals pitching staff that held firm throughout.

The Cardinals' best opportunity to change the outcome came in the top of the ninth, and the DiamondIQ model's win-probability swings told the story of a rally that flickered briefly before going cold. Luken Baker's single off Joe La Sorsa was the lone bright spot of the inning, adding 7.9% to St. Louis's win probability, but the threat was extinguished by a Moisés Gómez lineout that swung win probability 10.9 points against the Cardinals and a José Fermín lineout that cost another 7.1 points. An earlier opportunity in the seventh was similarly squandered when Ildemaro Vargas grounded into a double play off Tink Hence, a play that shifted win probability 7.3 points in Washington's favor.

On the pitching side, Joe La Sorsa was the model's most impactful performer with a game-high plus-15.2% WPA, navigating that ninth-inning threat despite allowing Baker's single. Luis Perdomo contributed plus-10.8% WPA and Tink Hence added plus-10.7%, the latter aided directly by the Vargas double play. Among Washington's hitters, Lewin Díaz posted plus-5.0% WPA and Joey Meneses added plus-4.5% WPA, supporting an efficient if modest offensive effort that needed nothing more than the one run the Nationals manufactured in the fourth.