Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 1 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
Kansas City defeated Cincinnati 7-3 at Surprise Stadium on March 3, 2024, with the Royals turning a narrow pregame edge into a rout. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 54 percent in favor of the home side and closed at 100 percent, a shift driven almost entirely by a decisive third inning in which Kansas City sent five runs across the plate. Cincinnati had briefly nudged the momentum its way in the top half of that frame when Will Benson doubled off Daniel Lynch IV, a swing that added 11.1 percent to the Reds' win probability and briefly gave the visitors life after they had scratched out a run in the second. But the Royals answered with force.
The bottom of the third unraveled Cincinnati's pitching staff in quick succession. MJ Melendez led the charge with a home run off Frankie Montas, the single biggest swing of the game at plus-19.1 percent win probability. Bobby Witt Jr. followed with another home run against Montas worth plus-10.5 percent, and then Nick Loftin connected for a third long ball in the inning, this one off Andrew Moore, adding another 17.6 percent. The five-run outburst effectively ended the contest. Kansas City's only negative sequence came in the second when Kyle Isbel grounded into a double play off Montas, costing the Royals 8.0 percent in win probability before they had built their lead.
Nick Loftin finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a WPA of plus-21.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.4 over the course of the afternoon. Melendez was close behind at plus-18.6 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24. Benson led Cincinnati's limited contributions at plus-9.3 percent WPA and plus-0.6 RE24. On the mound, Chris Stratton was the most effective Kansas City reliever by WPA at plus-5.0 percent, with Nick Anderson and James McArthur also contributing positively as the Royals closed out a comfortable win on seven hits and no errors.