Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

Boston topped Toronto 3-1 at JetBlue Park on March 3, 2024, with the Red Sox turning a tight, scoreless game into a comfortable win over the final three innings. The DiamondIQ model opened the day estimating a 54 percent home win probability, a figure that climbed to 100 percent by the game's end. The scoring was sparse through five innings, with Alejandro Kirk's sixth-inning home run off Brandon Walter providing Toronto its only lead and its most impactful offensive moment, swinging win probability 14.3 points in the Blue Jays' favor. Boston answered with a run of its own in the sixth before breaking the game open in the eighth.

The eighth inning settled the outcome decisively. With Boston trailing or tied, Nathan Hickey laced a single off Andrew Bash that added 18.2 percentage points to Boston's win probability, the single largest swing of the game. Dalton Guthrie followed with another single off Bash, pushing the probability another 16.7 points toward the Red Sox and effectively closing the door on any Toronto comeback. Boston's pitching staff contributed meaningfully to the outcome as well, with Chase Shugart leading the way at plus-11.2 percent WPA, followed by Lucas Luetge at plus-10.6 and Kutter Crawford at plus-8.2. Two costly double plays in the fourth and fifth innings, by Wilyer Abreu and Roberto Perez respectively, had quietly suppressed Boston's earlier scoring chances, but the Red Sox eventually made their opportunities count when it mattered most.