Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Kansas City Royals defeated the Seattle Mariners 9-7 at Peoria Stadium on February 28, 2024, handing Seattle a loss despite the Mariners entering as slight favorites. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened the game with a 54 percent home win probability for Seattle, but that figure fell to zero by the final out. Kansas City's offense did its most decisive work in two concentrated bursts, plating four runs in the third inning and then six more in the sixth, while adding an insurance trio in the eighth to put the game beyond reach.

The single biggest moment of the contest came in the top of the eighth, when Ryan Fitzgerald hit a home run off Marcelo Perez that swung win probability by plus-38.6 percent in the Royals' favor, the largest WPA shift of the game. Kyle Isbel had earlier delivered the most impactful blow of the pivotal sixth inning, a home run off Brett de Geus worth plus-28.5 percent, with Nick Loftin's walk off Travis Kuhn in that same frame contributing an additional plus-12.1 percent. On the Seattle side, Cal Raleigh provided the Mariners' brightest moment with a third-inning home run off Chris Stratton that swung probability plus-25.4 percent toward the home team, but Colt Emerson's eighth-inning groundout into a double play off Beck Way cost Seattle minus-14.4 percent at a moment when a rally might have mattered.

Among individual performers, Fitzgerald led all batters with a plus-38.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1, followed by Isbel at plus-26.5 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, and Hogan Windish at plus-24.1 percent WPA. On the mound, Beck Way paced Kansas City's pitching staff with plus-13.3 percent WPA, supported by Will Klein at plus-7.4 percent and Brady Singer at plus-6.7 percent, as the Royals bullpen held Seattle's offense in check through the game's final stages.