Cleveland Guardians at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians handed the San Diego Padres a 7-4 defeat on February 26, 2024, at Peoria Stadium, erasing a four-run first-inning deficit to pull away for the road victory. San Diego struck quickly in the opening frame, putting up four runs before Cleveland could respond, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate of home-win probability stood at 54% heading into the game. That early cushion, however, proved insufficient against a Guardians offense that chipped away steadily and delivered a knockout blow in the sixth.

The decisive moment came in the top of the sixth inning when Milan Tolentino launched a home run off Nolan Watson, a swing that added 17.5% in win probability and effectively flipped the game's momentum in Cleveland's favor. San Diego had opportunities to extend its lead earlier, but Ben Lively systematically dismantled them — Jake Cronenworth grounded into a double play in the first inning at a cost of 10.5% in win probability to the Padres, and Luis Campusano's strikeout in the second surrendered another 11.2%. Those two plays alone accounted for nearly 22 points of probability swinging toward Cleveland while Lively was on the mound. Jakob Marsee kept the Guardians' later push alive with a walk in the fourth that added 10.3% in win probability, and Myles Straw also contributed meaningfully to the Cleveland cause.

From a performance standpoint, Tolentino led all position players with a WPA of plus-17.3% and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Marsee posted plus-12.5% WPA and Straw added plus-10.2%. On the pitching side, Ben Lively was the story, finishing with a WPA of plus-23.2% to pace all pitchers in the game. Michael King and Tanner Burns also contributed positively out of the bullpen at plus-4.3% and plus-4.1%, respectively. Cleveland totaled 11 hits and committed no errors, while San Diego finished with 11 hits and one error. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of San Diego's win probability closed at 0%.