Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 4-2 at Citizens Bank Park on October 24, 2023, handing Philadelphia a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 54% home win probability for the Phillies. Arizona scattered 11 hits against Philadelphia's 5, committing no errors in a clean defensive performance. The D-backs struck first in the first inning, surrendered a Phillies answer in the second, and then watched Philadelphia tie the game in the fourth before Arizona seized control with a two-run fifth and an insurance run in the seventh.
The decisive sequence arrived in the top of the fifth, where Corbin Carroll's single off Ranger Suarez shifted Arizona's win probability by 11.2 percentage points, and Gabriel Moreno followed with an RBI single off Jeff Hoffman that added another 10.1 points, together representing the game's clearest turning point. Ketel Marte extended the lead in the seventh with a double off Jose Alvarado worth 9.7 percentage points of win probability. On the Philadelphia side, Bryson Stott's double off Brandon Pfaadt in the fourth generated the Phillies' largest positive swing at 12.9 points, but the offense could not build further on it. Paul Sewald retired Jake Cave on a flyout to end the ninth, a play that paradoxically registered as the game's single largest win-probability swing at 14.4 points given how much rode on a potential Phillies rally that never materialized.
Carroll finished as Arizona's top offensive contributor at plus-15.7 win probability added, while Cave's game-ending out produced an equivalent WPA figure from the pitching side of the ledger. Kevin Ginkel was the standout performer of the night by a wide margin, his relief work generating plus-29.9 win probability added, with Ryan Thompson contributing an additional 12.4 points out of the bullpen. Zack Wheeler led Philadelphia's pitching effort at plus-7.4 WPA, but the Phillies' bullpen could not protect the narrow margins the starters provided, and Arizona left Philadelphia with a 4-2 victory.