Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 0 | - | 10 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies routed the Arizona Diamondbacks 10-0 on October 17, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. Philadelphia's offense built the margin gradually before breaking the game open with four-run frames in both the sixth and seventh innings, leaving Arizona without a run across nine innings on just four hits.
The decisive swings came from Kyle Schwarber, whose two home runs off Merrill Kelly represented the game's most impactful offensive moments by a wide margin. His third-inning blast added 10.2 percent to Philadelphia's win probability, and his second homer in the sixth added another 8.0 percent, giving Schwarber a combined WPA of plus-17.6 across the night. The sixth inning carried additional weight: after Ketel Marte's double briefly added 5.3 percent to Arizona's win probability, Tommy Pham grounded out to erase that window, swinging the needle back 4.6 percent, and J.T. Realmuto followed with a double off Joe Mantiply that added 7.4 percent for Philadelphia and effectively closed out any remaining competitive tension.
Aaron Nola was the game's most dominant individual performer when accounting for win probability, posting a plus-28.5 WPA from the mound as he repeatedly stranded Arizona threats and kept the Diamondbacks off the board entirely. Realmuto complemented his offensive contribution with a WPA of plus-5.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.5, while Marte's plus-9.7 WPA came entirely from his sixth-inning double, though his RE24 of plus-0.2 reflected how quickly that opportunity dissolved.