Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
| PHI | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 5 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-3 on October 16, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate opening at a 54 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent as Philadelphia pulled away late. The Phillies built their advantage methodically, scoring twice in the first inning and adding single runs in the second, third, and fifth to take a commanding 5-0 lead before Arizona mounted any response. Nick Castellanos provided an early boost in the bottom of the second with a home run off Zac Gallen, a swing that added 6.0 percent to Philadelphia's win probability and set the tone for a night when the Phillies' offense consistently found answers.
Arizona's comeback attempt arrived in the sixth and seventh innings but ultimately fell short of bridging the gap. Geraldo Perdomo's home run off Zack Wheeler in the top of the sixth added 8.4 percent to the Diamondbacks' win probability, and Gabriel Moreno's fielder's choice in the top of the seventh off Seranthony Dominguez added another 10.0 percent, bringing Arizona within two. However, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was a central figure in the D-backs' failure to capitalize, producing a lineout in the seventh that cost Arizona 8.0 percent in win probability and a ground into double play against Craig Kimbrel in the ninth that drained another 7.1 percent, effectively closing the door on any rally.
On the individual ledger, Gabriel Moreno finished as Arizona's top performer with a WPA of plus 11.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.7, while Johan Rojas contributed plus 9.6 percent WPA. For Philadelphia, Bryce Harper led position players with plus 5.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.8, but the pitching staff was the true backbone of the win. Zack Wheeler paced all pitchers with plus 13.3 percent WPA, Jose Alvarado added plus 11.3 percent, and Kimbrel closed it out at plus 6.3 percent, a trio whose combined impact made the Phillies' 5-3 victory a story driven as much by Philadelphia's arms as its bats.