Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks eliminated the Los Angeles Dodgers from the 2023 postseason with a 4-2 victory at Chase Field on October 11, 2023, handing Los Angeles a defeat that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 54 percent pregame home win probability all the way to 100 percent certainty for Arizona by the final out. The game turned almost entirely on a third inning that swung the entire contest in the Diamondbacks' favor, as Lance Lynn surrendered three consecutive home runs that buried the Dodgers before they could mount any meaningful response.

The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the third, where Geraldo Perdomo's home run added 10.6 percent to Arizona's win probability, followed immediately by Ketel Marte's home run at plus 9.9 percent, and then Christian Walker's home run at plus 8.6 percent, all off Lance Lynn. The Dodgers had squandered their best chance to stay in the game moments earlier when David Peralta grounded into a double play against Brandon Pfaadt, a swing of negative 8.0 percent that ended a Los Angeles threat before it could take shape. Los Angeles did push across two runs in the seventh on Enrique Hernandez's single off Ryan Thompson, worth plus 8.9 percent win probability, but the deficit proved insurmountable.

Marte finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting at plus 11.8 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24, while Perdomo posted plus 10.0 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. On the pitching side, Brandon Pfaadt led Arizona's staff with plus 10.6 percent WPA, receiving strong support from Kevin Ginkel at plus 8.1 percent and Joe Mantiply at plus 7.4 percent. Hernandez was the lone Dodger bright spot, registering plus 8.3 percent WPA in a losing effort.