Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | - | 10 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies eliminated the Atlanta Braves with a dominant 10-2 victory at Citizens Bank Park on October 11, 2023, turning what opened as a nearly even contest into a rout by the third inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Philadelphia holding a 54 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure climbed to 100 percent before the night was finished, with the decisive damage concentrated almost entirely in the bottom of the third.
That third inning was the game within the game. Atlanta had briefly stirred against Aaron Nola in the top half, with Ronald Acuña Jr. delivering a double worth plus 4.4 percent in win probability and Ozzie Albies following with a single that added another 8.8 percent for the Braves. Those were the last meaningful moments for Atlanta. Philadelphia answered with a six-run bottom of the third that effectively ended the contest. Bryce Harper's home run off Bryce Elder was the single most consequential swing of the night, adding 25.8 percent in win probability, and Nick Castellanos followed with another home run off Elder that pushed the needle a further 11.0 percent in Philadelphia's direction. J.T. Realmuto then greeted reliever Michael Tonkin with a double that added 9.8 percent more, compounding the damage and rendering Atlanta's chances essentially theoretical from that point forward.
Harper finished as the game's most impactful player by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined plus 26.5 percent in win probability added and a RE24 of plus 2.5. Castellanos and Realmuto were close behind at plus 10.6 and plus 8.1 in win probability added, respectively, with Realmuto's RE24 of plus 1.9 reflecting his consistent run-context production throughout the lineup. On the mound, Aaron Nola carried a win probability added of plus 2.7, steadying Philadelphia's pitching contribution despite the brief Atlanta threat he navigated. Atlanta finished with 10 hits but managed only two runs, unable to translate their offensive activity into anything that approached the Phillies' third-inning outburst.