Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks steamrolled the Los Angeles Dodgers 11-2 at Dodger Stadium on October 7, 2023, delivering a dominant performance that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 54 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to zero. Arizona struck early and decisively, plating six runs in the first inning and adding three more in the second to build a 9-0 lead before Los Angeles managed any meaningful response. The Dodgers finished with just four hits on the night, while the Diamondbacks collected 13 and committed no errors.

The game's decisive moments came in those opening two frames, and the DiamondIQ model captured the magnitude of each swing. Max Muncy's lineout to end the bottom of the first represented a 12.1 percent drop in the Dodgers' win probability, as Los Angeles failed to answer Arizona's six-run burst off Emmet Sheehan. The Dodgers' situation worsened in the second when James Outman popped out with a 13.5 percent negative win-probability swing, extinguishing any early hopes of a rally against Merrill Kelly. On the Arizona side, Geraldo Perdomo's strikeout in the top of the second carried a 13.1 percent positive swing, reflecting how thoroughly Kelly had neutralized the Dodgers' threat-ending sequences. Corbin Carroll added a home run off Sheehan in the second as well, contributing 1.4 percent to the Diamondbacks' mounting advantage.

Merrill Kelly was the game's most impactful individual performer, accumulating a 26.5 percent win-probability added figure that stood well above every other pitcher or batter on either side. Ketel Marte contributed 11.2 percent WPA at the plate, while Carroll finished with a 1.3 percent WPA mark alongside a 1.3 RE24, making him the only Arizona batter to post a positive run-expectancy number on the night. Luis Frías and Caleb Ferguson each finished at 0.0 percent WPA in relief, as the outcome had been rendered academic long before they took the mound.