Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies closed out Citizens Bank Park with a dominant 7-1 victory over the Miami Marlins on October 4, 2023, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 54% before first pitch to 100% at the final out. Philadelphia did its damage in clusters, scoring two in the third, one in the fourth, and four more in the sixth, while Miami managed just a single run in the ninth against an already-decided outcome. The Marlins finished with five hits and one error against seven hits for the Phillies in a game that was never truly competitive once the middle innings took shape.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the third against Braxton Garrett, when Kyle Schwarber laced a double that shifted win probability by plus 12.0 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Trea Turner followed with a single worth plus 7.8 percentage points, and the Phillies were on their way. J.T. Realmuto added a home run off David Robertson in the fourth, a swing worth plus 8.0 percentage points that extended the lead and pushed Miami further toward elimination. On the other side of the ledger, Miami's baserunners repeatedly stalled, with Jesús Sánchez grounding into a double play in the fifth at a cost of minus 9.5 percentage points and Jacob Stallings doing the same in the sixth at minus 8.5, both against Aaron Nola.
Nola was the story of this game by a significant margin. His pitching line generated plus 23.3 percentage points of win probability added, dwarfing every other contributor on either roster. Among position players, Schwarber led at plus 10.7 WPA with a plus 0.5 RE24, Realmuto posted plus 9.4 WPA and plus 0.4 RE24, and Jon Berti contributed plus 8.9 WPA with the game's best RE24 among batters at plus 0.7. The DiamondIQ model leans heavily toward performances anchored by pitching efficiency, and Nola's dominance while Miami's lineup kept killing its own rallies told the complete story of this lopsided October afternoon.