Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox silenced a Baltimore crowd that had entered with considerable confidence, rolling to a 6-1 victory at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on October 1, 2023. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Baltimore at a 68 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure eroded steadily before reaching zero as Boston handled the Orioles with a clean performance, committing no errors against a Baltimore club that made three.

The decisive turn came in the third inning when a field error off Danny Coulombe, credited to Rafael Devers, shifted win probability by 18.5 percent in Boston's favor, cracking open what had been a scoreless game and handing the Red Sox a 2-0 lead. The visitors then applied a finishing blow in the seventh, when Reese McGuire reached on a fielder's choice off Cionel Pérez for a 9.4 percent win-probability swing, capping a four-run frame that made the score 6-0. Baltimore's best early opportunities quietly dissolved, most notably Ryan O'Hearn lining out to end the first and Jordan Westburg striking out in the second, plays that cost the Orioles 4.9 and 6.1 percent in win probability respectively.

Tanner Houck was the individual story of the evening, accumulating a team-high 39.0 percent in win probability added from the mound while repeatedly neutralizing Baltimore threats, including the lineout from Ryan Mountcastle in the sixth worth a 5.4 percent swing. At the plate, Devers led all batters at plus-18.5 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1, with McGuire close behind at plus-9.3 percent WPA and plus-1.2 RE24. DL Hall and Shintaro Fujinami each contributed on the mound, adding 4.4 and 4.3 percent respectively as Boston finished with five hits, no errors, and complete command of a game the model had initially favored the home side to win.