Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 7-5 on September 30, 2023, at Rogers Centre, erasing a deficit with a three-run tenth inning that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win from 48 percent before first pitch to zero percent at the final out. Toronto had taken a 3-0 advantage with three runs in the fourth inning and appeared to hold a meaningful edge heading into the late innings, but Harold Ramírez kept the Rays within striking distance with a two-run home run off Trevor Richards in the fifth, a swing that shifted win probability 18.6 percent in Tampa Bay's favor.

The decisive sequence came in the tenth against Blue Jays reliever Jordan Hicks. Taylor Walls delivered the biggest play of the game, a single that added 44.6 percent win probability as the Rays pushed across runs in extra innings. Raimel Tapia followed with a walk that contributed another 23.2 percent, extending the inning and Tampa Bay's lead. Yandy Díaz was the only notable blemish in that frame, with a strikeout that cost the Rays 19.2 percent, though the damage was contained as the club ultimately scored three in the inning to go ahead 7-4. Randy Arozarena had been a drag earlier, grounding into a double play in the sixth against Erik Swanson at a cost of 15.8 percent.

Walls finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-36.0 percent to go with a RE24 of plus-0.7, while Tapia posted plus-23.2 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.0. Kevin Kiermaier contributed plus-20.3 percent on the offensive side as well. On the mound, Pete Fairbanks led Tampa Bay's relievers at plus-10.9 percent, with Jordan Romano and Yimi García each adding value for the Rays at plus-10.6 and plus-8.3 percent, respectively, as the Toronto bullpen could not hold what the Blue Jays' offense had built.