Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 10 | 2 |
| ATL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 3 |
The Story
The Washington Nationals erased a significant pregame disadvantage to defeat the Atlanta Braves 10-6 at Truist Park on September 29, 2023, scoring in four separate innings while Atlanta managed just one multi-run frame. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Braves entering with a 73% chance of winning at home, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out, reflecting how completely Washington commandeered the game from the middle innings onward.
The decisive turning point came in the fourth inning, when Carter Kieboom connected on a home run off Allan Winans that shifted win probability by plus-28.7 points, the single largest swing of the game. The Braves responded with a four-run fifth that temporarily stabilized things, with Kevin Pillar's single off Jordan Weems adding plus-14.7 points and Ozzie Albies's triple in the same inning contributing plus-12.8 points for Atlanta. But Washington answered immediately and emphatically. Dominic Smith's home run off Brad Hand in the sixth produced a plus-24.1-point swing, and Lane Thomas added another solo shot off Jesse Chavez in the seventh for plus-13.4 points, effectively closing out any realistic path back for the Braves despite their 17-hit output.
Kieboom led all position players with a plus-28.9% WPA and plus-1.9 RE24, while Jake Alu contributed the strongest run-environment impact on the day at plus-2.1 RE24 and plus-19.7% WPA. Smith added plus-21.5% WPA and plus-0.8 RE24 in support. On the mound, Hunter Harvey was the most valuable Nationals reliever by the model's accounting, producing plus-6.1% WPA, with Joe La Sorsa adding plus-2.5% WPA in a bullpen effort that ultimately preserved the four-run margin.