Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays shut out the Boston Red Sox 5-0 at Fenway Park on September 27, 2023, holding Boston to just three hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game giving Boston a 41% chance of winning at home, but by the final out that figure had fallen to 0%, a reflection of how thoroughly Tampa Bay controlled the contest from the second inning onward.

The game's decisive stretch came in the fourth inning, where the two biggest win-probability swings were concentrated. Manuel Margot's double off Brayan Bello shifted win probability by plus 12.3%, and Isaac Paredes followed with a single worth plus 7.0%, helping Tampa Bay push its lead to three runs. Boston had squandered its best early opportunity in the second inning, when Enmanuel Valdez grounded into a double play off Tyler Glasnow, a sequence that swung win probability by minus 12.0% against the Red Sox. Paredes added further separation with a home run in the sixth off Bello, a plus 9.2% swing that effectively closed out any remaining Boston hope.

Isaac Paredes finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus 15.2% WPA and plus 1.9 RE24. Josh Lowe contributed plus 9.0% WPA and led all batters with a plus 2.0 RE24, while Margot added plus 10.4% WPA and plus 1.1 RE24. On the mound, Tyler Glasnow was the story, generating plus 19.4% WPA over his start as he held Boston's offense largely in check throughout.