MLB Recap · September 26, 2023

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

AZ15
Final
CWS4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ01206201315120
CWS310000000492

The Story

The Arizona Diamondbacks rolled to a 15-4 victory over the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field on September 26, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected emphatically — Chicago's pre-game win probability of 39% collapsed to 0% by the final out. Arizona built its lead methodically through the early innings before breaking the game open with a six-run fifth that effectively ended any competitive tension. The Diamondbacks finished with 12 hits and committed no errors, while Chicago was undone in part by two errors of their own.

The decisive sequence came in the fifth inning, where Christian Walker's triple off Yohan Ramírez shifted Arizona's win probability by 14.1 percentage points, and a subsequent Tommy Pham walk off José Ureña added another 13.2 points — together representing the two most impactful individual plate appearances of the game. Ketel Marte had also done significant damage earlier, as his fielder's choice off Ureña in the third inning swung win probability by 10.7 points. Ureña was at the center of Arizona's biggest gains and Chicago's sharpest declines throughout the evening. The lone moment Chicago briefly steadied itself came when Gabriel Moreno struck out with runners on in the second, a play worth 9.1 percentage points in the White Sox's favor.

Walker led all batters with a WPA of plus-19.4 and an RE24 of plus-3.7, making him the game's most impactful offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Marte was close behind at plus-16.8 WPA and plus-2.9 RE24, while Alek Thomas added plus-11.3 WPA and plus-1.3 RE24 to round out Arizona's top three. On the mound, starter Ryne Nelson was the most valuable Diamondbacks pitcher at plus-7.7 WPA, with Kyle Nelson and Lane Ramsey each finishing neutral in win-probability terms as the outcome had long since been settled.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalCWS win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 39.3% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Christian Walker Triple
Top 5th · off Yohan Ramírez
+14.1%
Tommy Pham Walk
Top 5th · off José Ureña
+13.2%
Ketel Marte Fielders Choice
Top 3rd · off José Ureña
+10.7%
Gabriel Moreno Strikeout
Top 2nd · off José Ureña
-9.1%
Trayce Thompson Strikeout
Bot 1st · off Zach Davies
+8.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Christian Walker+19.4%+3.7 RE24
Ketel Marte+16.8%+2.9 RE24
Alek Thomas+11.3%+1.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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