Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-1 on September 25, 2023, at Guaranteed Rate Field, a game the DiamondIQ model's estimate had as a 39 percent home win probability before first pitch before climbing to 100 percent by the final out. Chicago's offense struck early and the pitching staff held firm, leaving Arizona with just three hits on the night.

The decisive moments came in the second and fourth innings. Andrew Vaughn delivered the game's single largest win-probability swing, connecting on a home run off Bryce Jarvis in the bottom of the second that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 11.5 percent in Chicago's favor. A Trayce Thompson flyout later in that same frame added another 7.1 percent to the White Sox's probability, a reflection of how efficiently Chicago was operating with runners on base. In the bottom of the fourth, Yoán Moncada hit a home run off Kyle Nelson to push the advantage further, a swing worth 10.0 percent in win probability. Arizona's best moment came in the top of the third when Corbin Carroll tripled off Touki Toussaint for a 6.8 percent gain, but a Geraldo Perdomo strikeout to open the fourth erased much of that momentum, costing the Diamondbacks 9.1 percent.

On the individual ledger, Moncada finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-11.8 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.3, while Vaughn contributed plus-8.8 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.2. Gabriel Moreno added plus-7.3 percent on the Arizona side despite the loss. On the mound, Aaron Bummer was the most impactful arm of the evening at plus-15.9 percent WPA, supported by Touki Toussaint at plus-11.6 percent, as the White Sox bullpen and rotation combined to neutralize an Arizona lineup that could manage only three hits across nine innings.