Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago White Sox defeated the Boston Red Sox 3-2 at Fenway Park on September 24, 2023, overcoming a pregame environment in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Boston a 64 percent chance of winning at first pitch. The decisive sequence came in the top of the fifth inning, when Elvis Andrus ripped a double off Kutter Crawford that swung win probability 20.9 percent in Chicago's favor, the single largest win-probability swing of the game. The White Sox added another run in the top of the sixth, and while Boston answered with an Adam Duvall home run off Mike Clevinger in the bottom half that shifted win probability 13.5 percent toward the Red Sox, Chicago's lead proved sufficient. Boston had briefly cut into the deficit in the second inning on a Wilyer Abreu home run off Clevinger worth 7.8 percent in win-probability terms, and Enmanuel Valdez added a double in the fifth that nudged Boston's chances upward by 8.1 percent, but a Ceddanne Rafaela lineout in that same frame erased 7.8 percent of those gains and kept the Red Sox from fully capitalizing.

Andrus finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus 19.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.3, his fifth-inning double serving as the pivot point of the entire contest. Duvall led Boston's contributors at plus 14.0 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, though his home run came too late to change the outcome. Gavin Sheets added a modest plus 6.4 percent WPA for Chicago. On the mound, Clevinger was the pitching standout despite surrendering Boston's runs, finishing with a plus 11.5 percent WPA, while Crawford's performance was the costliest of the night at minus 17.6 percent, directly reflecting the damage Andrus inflicted against him. The White Sox final line of 3 runs on 4 hits with 1 error was enough to send the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win from 64 percent before the game to zero percent by the final out.