New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 5-2 at Citizens Bank Park on September 24, 2023, in a game that was effectively decided in the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring the Phillies with a 64% home win probability, and by the time Philadelphia had finished batting in the fourth, that figure was climbing sharply toward a decisive advantage that ultimately closed at 100%.

The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the fourth against Mets starter José Buttó. A J.T. Realmuto single shifted win probability 15.9 points in Philadelphia's favor, the single largest swing of the game, and Nick Castellanos followed with a home run that added another 13.1 points. The Phillies plated four runs in the inning and added one more in the fifth, building a 5-0 lead that proved insurmountable. New York managed a two-run sixth on a Ronny Mauricio home run off Cristopher Sánchez, a swing worth 7.5 points of win probability for the Mets, but that represented the extent of any meaningful threat. A Mark Vientos flyout in the fifth with runners on had cost the Mets 6.2 points of win probability, underscoring how thoroughly Philadelphia controlled the game's critical moments.

Realmuto finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-16.4 with an RE24 of plus-1.5, while Castellanos posted a plus-12.3 WPA and led all batters with a plus-1.8 RE24. On the mound, Cristopher Sánchez was the standout, contributing plus-11.8 WPA while limiting the Mets after the Phillies had already built their lead. Orion Kerkering and Anthony Kay each added positive WPA contributions in relief to close out the Phillies' win.