MLB Recap · September 24, 2023

Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

SEA8
Final
TEX9

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SEA0110033008130
TEX10240200-980

The Story

The Texas Rangers held off the Seattle Mariners 9-8 on September 24, 2023, at Globe Life Field in a high-scoring contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Texas win climb from 56 percent before first pitch to a certainty by the final out. The Rangers built their lead through a series of impactful offensive bursts, most notably a four-run fourth inning and a two-run sixth that proved critical in absorbing Seattle's repeated attempts to claw back. Bryan Woo absorbed the early damage for Seattle, surrendering home runs to Corey Seager in the third inning and Leody Taveras in the fourth, the Seager blast registering as the single biggest win-probability swing of the game at plus 21.0 percent. Evan Carter added a home run off Eduard Bazardo in the bottom of the sixth for a plus 14.2 percent swing, further insulating the Texas lead each time Seattle threatened to close the gap.

Seattle did not go quietly, finishing with 13 hits and posting a three-run seventh inning in which Eugenio Suárez delivered a single off Chris Stratton that swung win probability by plus 16.0 percent, the largest positive play of the game from the Mariners' perspective. However, Cal Raleigh's strikeout against Brock Burke in the top of the eighth, a minus 13.2 percent swing, effectively ended Seattle's last credible threat and punctuated a night of missed opportunities in the late innings. On the mound, José Leclerc was the Rangers' most valuable arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing plus 15.2 percent to Texas's win probability, with Burke adding plus 13.2 percent by navigating that dangerous eighth.

Among position players, Corey Seager was the game's most impactful individual, finishing with plus 23.5 percent WPA and plus 1.9 RE24 to lead all batters. Suárez paced Seattle's contributors at plus 20.1 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, while Evan Carter posted plus 16.7 percent WPA and plus 1.2 RE24 to round out the top three by that measure. The final line of 9-8 reflected how competitive the game remained through much of the night, but Texas's ability to accumulate damage early against Woo and then protect the lead through its bullpen ultimately proved decisive.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SEA bats firstFinalTEX win %SEA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 55.9% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Corey Seager Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Bryan Woo
+21.0%
Eugenio Suárez Single
Top 7th · off Chris Stratton
+16.0%
Evan Carter Home Run
Bot 6th · off Eduard Bazardo
+14.2%
Cal Raleigh Strikeout
Top 8th · off Brock Burke
-13.2%
Leody Taveras Home Run
Bot 4th · off Bryan Woo
+13.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Corey Seager+23.5%+1.9 RE24
Eugenio Suárez+20.1%+1.1 RE24
Evan Carter+16.7%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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