Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays erased a two-run Tampa Bay lead and pulled away for a 9-5 victory at Tropicana Field on September 24, 2023, a result that moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Rays win from 59 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. Tampa Bay scored twice in the bottom of the first to set the early tone, but Toronto answered emphatically in the top of the second when George Springer connected on a home run off Taj Bradley, a swing that shifted win probability 13.0 percent in the Blue Jays' favor and keyed a five-run frame that effectively turned the game around. The Rays were unable to capitalize on a scoring chance in the bottom of the second, when Yandy Díaz's flyout off Yusei Kikuchi cost Tampa Bay 10.0 percent in win probability and helped strand any momentum from their early lead.
Isaac Paredes briefly threatened to make things interesting in the bottom of the seventh, launching a home run off Yimi García that represented the single biggest win-probability swing of the night at plus 23.6 percent for Tampa Bay and cut into what had become a Toronto advantage. However, the Blue Jays responded in the top of the eighth when Daulton Varsho laced a triple off Colin Poche, a hit worth plus 16.8 percent in win probability that restored Toronto's cushion and effectively sealed the outcome. Osleivis Basabe's strikeout against Erik Swanson in the bottom of the eighth, costing the Rays 12.3 percent in win probability, closed the door on any meaningful comeback.
Among individuals, Paredes led all batters with a plus 17.0 percent WPA and plus 2.4 RE24 despite being on the losing side, while Varsho finished at plus 15.8 percent WPA and Bo Bichette contributed plus 11.6 percent WPA for Toronto's offense. On the mound, Erik Swanson paced the Blue Jays pitching staff at plus 13.3 percent WPA, followed closely by Trevor Richards at plus 12.6 percent, with starter Yusei Kikuchi adding plus 7.5 percent in a performance that kept Tampa Bay's lineup largely in check during the game's critical early innings.