Colorado Rockies at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Colorado Rockies 6-3 on September 23, 2023, at Wrigley Field, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate suggested was likely from the outset, assigning the Cubs a 69 percent pre-game home win probability that ultimately reached 100 percent by game's end. Colorado briefly disrupted that trajectory by scoring three times in the second inning to take an early lead, but Chicago methodically chipped away with single runs in the fifth, sixth, and seventh innings before pulling away with two more in the eighth, finishing with a 6-9-1 line to Colorado's 3-8-0.

The eighth inning was where the game's most consequential swings occurred according to the DiamondIQ model. Colorado had a fleeting opportunity to reenter contention when Ezequiel Tovar laced a double off Julian Merryweather, a play worth plus-15.8 percent in win probability for the Rockies. However, that threat collapsed on either side of it, as Charlie Blackmon struck out for a swing of minus-17.0 percent and Brenton Doyle followed with another strikeout at minus-13.3 percent, both against Merryweather. Chicago then answered emphatically in the bottom half when Christopher Morel hit a home run off Matt Koch, adding 12.0 percent to the Cubs' win probability, effectively closing the door. Yan Gomes had also contributed a key double off Jake Bird in the sixth, worth another 12.0 percent.

Among individual performers, Nico Hoerner led all players by WPA, contributing plus-19.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4, while Tovar's efforts were enough to pace the Rockies at plus-19.0 percent despite the loss. On the mound, Javier Assad was the most impactful arm of the night at plus-22.8 percent WPA, followed by Chris Flexen at plus-20.4 percent, with Merryweather adding plus-10.8 percent in relief as Chicago's pitching staff ultimately smothered Colorado's offense after that early second-inning burst.