New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 7-5 on September 23, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game assigning Philadelphia a 63% win probability and closing at 100% after the Phillies held off a late Mets push. The game turned on contributions scattered across several innings, with Philadelphia building its lead through timely hitting against Jose Quintana before New York mounted a seventh-inning threat that ultimately fell short.

The Phillies did their most meaningful offensive damage in the second, third, and fifth innings. Nick Castellanos delivered a triple off Quintana in the second that shifted win probability 11.2 points in Philadelphia's favor, and Alec Bohm added a home run in the third worth 11.1 points of win probability, also against Quintana. The biggest Phillies blow came in the fifth, when Bryce Harper singled off Quintana to push Philadelphia's chances up another 12.8 points. The Mets responded in the seventh with Brandon Nimmo's triple off Zack Wheeler, which represented the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 20.2 points and briefly tightened the game. However, J.T. Realmuto answered in the bottom half with a single off Reed Garrett worth 11.1 points, restoring Philadelphia's cushion and effectively closing the door.

By the DiamondIQ model's estimates, Nimmo finished as the top batter on the night with a cumulative WPA of plus 20.5 and an RE24 of plus 1.4, though his team came up short. Bryce Harper led all Phillies batters at plus 16.3 WPA and plus 2.3 RE24, while Realmuto added plus 12.5 WPA and plus 1.1 RE24. In the bullpen, Gregory Soto contributed plus 8.1 WPA and Jose Alvarado added plus 6.3, while Reed Garrett was the costliest arm of the night at minus 10.6 WPA before Philadelphia ultimately secured the two-run victory.