Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| TB | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 3 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays walked off the Toronto Blue Jays 7-6 on September 23, 2023, at Tropicana Field in a game that swung dramatically in the final inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with a 59% home win probability for Tampa Bay, and while that edge appeared to dissolve through the middle innings, the model's estimate ultimately closed at 100% as the Rays manufactured a two-run ninth to end it.
Toronto had clawed back into a commanding position after a four-run sixth inning, with Cavan Biggio's double off Shawn Armstrong contributing an 18.8% swing in win probability. The Blue Jays added two more in the eighth, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s walk off Pete Fairbanks adding another 16.3% boost. But the late leads dissolved under Jordan Romano in the bottom of the ninth. Josh Lowe's single off Romano produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 35.9%, followed immediately by Yandy Díaz's double at plus 25.1% and Harold Ramírez's game-winning single at plus 20.3%, a three-hit sequence that erased Toronto's advantage entirely.
On the strength-of-contribution side, Josh Lowe led all position players with a plus 39.3% WPA and plus 3.3 RE24, while Yandy Díaz posted plus 30.6% WPA and plus 2.3 RE24. Whit Merrifield was the third-most impactful bat by WPA at plus 26.0%. On the mound, Yimi García led Tampa Bay's relievers at plus 23.3% WPA, with Zack Littell and Chris Devenski each contributing positively as well. The Rays' pitching staff compensated for three Tampa Bay errors on the night, holding together long enough for the offense to finish the job.