New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the New York Mets 5-4 in ten innings on September 22, 2023, at Citizens Bank Park, completing a comeback that began in a tied game and ended on a walk-off in extras. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 63 percent home win probability for Philadelphia before arriving at a final certainty of 100 percent, a reflection of how decisively the late innings swung toward the Phillies.

The decisive momentum shift came in the bottom of the sixth, when J.T. Realmuto hit a home run off Tylor Megill that registered a +41.1 percent win-probability swing, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Realmuto finished as the game's top performer by WPA at +31.2 percent with a +1.6 RE24, making him the most impactful player on either side. The Mets answered in the top of the ninth when Brett Baty homered off Craig Kimbrel in a play worth +35.7 percent to the Mets, knotting the game and keeping New York alive. Baty finished second overall by WPA at +29.4 percent. Francisco Lindor added a solo home run in the top of the eighth off Gregory Soto, a +12.7 percent swing, while Kyle Schwarber's single in the bottom of the seventh off Phil Bickford contributed +11.7 percent for Philadelphia.

The game ended in the bottom of the tenth when Alec Bohm singled off Adam Ottavino, a +28.4 percent swing that delivered the winning run. Bohm finished with a +17.6 percent WPA and +0.4 RE24. On the mound, Matt Strahm led Philadelphia's relievers with a +8.5 percent WPA, followed by Jeff Hoffman at +5.1 percent and Taijuan Walker at +0.7 percent. The Mets committed one error on the night against a clean Philadelphia defense, a margin that reflected the Phillies' edge throughout what became a back-and-forth extra-inning contest.