MLB Recap · September 22, 2023

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

SF5
Final
LAD1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
SF000201002580
LAD000000010150

The Story

The San Francisco Giants silenced a Dodger Stadium crowd that had entered the night with reason for confidence, downing Los Angeles 5-1 on September 22, 2023. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Dodgers with a 65 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as San Francisco's pitching staff and a pair of home runs made the result look increasingly one-sided as the evening wore on.

The decisive blow came in the fourth inning when Mike Yastrzemski connected off Gavin Stone for a home run that shifted win probability by plus 20.4 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Stone surrendered another long ball in the sixth, this time to Thairo Estrada, which added another plus 10.3 percent to the Giants' ledger. Los Angeles had moments where it threatened to change the complexion of the contest, most notably in the eighth when Mookie Betts drew a walk off Tyler Rogers to push Dodger win probability up 9.0 percent, but Will Smith's groundout to close Camilo Doval erased that flicker, swinging things back in San Francisco's favor by minus 16.4 percent. A J.D. Martinez double play in the seventh, induced by Sean Manaea, had already cost the Dodgers minus 11.1 percent.

Sean Manaea was the individual most responsible for the outcome, posting a plus 42.4 percent WPA contribution from the mound, while Doval added plus 15.0 percent in relief. At the plate, Yastrzemski led all batters with a plus 18.8 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, Freddie Freeman contributed plus 6.0 percent WPA, and Joc Pederson added plus 5.0 percent as the Giants finished with eight hits and committed no errors against a Dodgers club that managed five hits and an equally clean defensive effort.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025SF bats firstFinalLAD win %SF win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 65.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Mike Yastrzemski Home Run
Top 4th · off Gavin Stone
+20.4%
Will Smith Groundout
Bot 8th · off Camilo Doval
-16.4%
J.D. Martinez Grounded Into DP
Bot 7th · off Sean Manaea
-11.1%
Thairo Estrada Home Run
Top 6th · off Gavin Stone
+10.3%
Mookie Betts Walk
Bot 8th · off Tyler Rogers
+9.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Mike Yastrzemski+18.8%+1.6 RE24
Freddie Freeman+6.0%+0.8 RE24
Joc Pederson+5.0%+0.4 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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