San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants silenced a Dodger Stadium crowd that had entered the night with reason for confidence, downing Los Angeles 5-1 on September 22, 2023. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Dodgers with a 65 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as San Francisco's pitching staff and a pair of home runs made the result look increasingly one-sided as the evening wore on.
The decisive blow came in the fourth inning when Mike Yastrzemski connected off Gavin Stone for a home run that shifted win probability by plus 20.4 percent, the single largest swing of the game. Stone surrendered another long ball in the sixth, this time to Thairo Estrada, which added another plus 10.3 percent to the Giants' ledger. Los Angeles had moments where it threatened to change the complexion of the contest, most notably in the eighth when Mookie Betts drew a walk off Tyler Rogers to push Dodger win probability up 9.0 percent, but Will Smith's groundout to close Camilo Doval erased that flicker, swinging things back in San Francisco's favor by minus 16.4 percent. A J.D. Martinez double play in the seventh, induced by Sean Manaea, had already cost the Dodgers minus 11.1 percent.
Sean Manaea was the individual most responsible for the outcome, posting a plus 42.4 percent WPA contribution from the mound, while Doval added plus 15.0 percent in relief. At the plate, Yastrzemski led all batters with a plus 18.8 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, Freddie Freeman contributed plus 6.0 percent WPA, and Joc Pederson added plus 5.0 percent as the Giants finished with eight hits and committed no errors against a Dodgers club that managed five hits and an equally clean defensive effort.