Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Baltimore Orioles 5-2 on September 21, 2023, at Progressive Field, handing Baltimore a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 39 percent home win probability for Cleveland. The Guardians broke through first in the bottom of the fifth, when José Ramírez singled off Grayson Rodriguez for a shift of plus 15.5 percent in win probability, plating what would prove to be the game's opening runs in a 2-0 Cleveland lead. Baltimore answered in the top of the eighth with back-to-back doubles off Trevor Stephan — Ryan O'Hearn's hit moved the needle plus 18.3 percent and Adley Rutschman's followed at plus 14.1 percent — cutting the deficit and briefly swinging momentum toward the visitors. Cleveland responded immediately in the bottom of the eighth, with Ramón Laureano drawing a walk off Jacob Webb for plus 9.8 percent and Bo Naylor following with a single for plus 7.9 percent, extending the lead to 5-2 and pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100 percent in the Guardians' favor.

Individually, Rutschman led all position players with a plus 20.9 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24, finishing as Baltimore's most impactful bat despite the loss. Ramírez posted plus 16.8 percent WPA and plus 0.7 RE24 for Cleveland, while Laureano was the Guardians' most productive run-environment contributor at plus 1.5 RE24 alongside his plus 10.7 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Hunter Gaddis led Cleveland's staff with plus 15.6 percent WPA, followed by Eli Morgan at plus 12.0 percent and Reynaldo López at plus 7.2 percent. Baltimore finished with seven hits and Cleveland with eight, with neither side committing an error, but the Guardians' ability to protect the fifth-inning lead and then seal the game in the eighth proved decisive.