Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Detroit Tigers handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 4-2 defeat at Dodger Stadium on September 20, 2023, overcoming a team that entered the night as a heavy favorite. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had the Dodgers with a 68 percent pre-game win probability, a figure that eroded steadily before bottoming out at zero. Detroit scratched across single runs in the second and third innings to build an early lead, then added insurance in the seventh and eighth to put the game away. Los Angeles managed just three hits on the night against a Tigers pitching staff that controlled the game far more thoroughly than the final margin suggests.

The pivotal swing came in the top of the seventh, when Carson Kelly singled off Ryan Brasier to generate the game's largest win-probability movement, a +14.6 percent shift in Detroit's favor. That blow proved decisive in separating the two clubs at a moment when Los Angeles still had life. The Dodgers' best counter-punch came in the bottom of the sixth, when Max Muncy connected for a home run off Reese Olson for a +13.5 percent swing, and Mookie Betts followed with a significant double off Will Vest in the eighth for +13.1 percent, briefly rekindling the threat. However, James Outman's strikeout to end the ninth, generated a +12.0 percent swing toward Detroit, closed the door.

Individually, Kelly finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a +15.7 percent WPA and a +1.1 RE24. Betts and Muncy led the Dodgers in those categories at +7.8 and +7.4 percent WPA respectively, but their contributions were not enough. On the pitching side, Reese Olson was the story of the night despite surrendering the Muncy home run, finishing with a remarkable +28.7 percent WPA, the highest mark on either side. Miguel Díaz added +8.0 percent WPA out of the bullpen, with Will Vest closing it out as Brusdar Graterol contributed +1.6 percent on the Los Angeles side.