Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 on September 20, 2023, at Minute Maid Park, rallying for both of their runs in the final two innings to erase what had been a Baltimore lead. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Houston a 47% chance of winning at home, but by the final out that estimate had moved to 100% as the Astros strung together late-game hits to secure the victory.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the eighth inning, when Jeremy Peña doubled off Mike Baumann to swing win probability by plus 22.4 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. That inning did not produce a run, however, as Alex Bregman's strikeout and José Abreu's groundout, both off Baumann, cost Houston a combined 22.3 percentage points of win probability and kept the game scoreless through eight. Houston finally broke through in the bottom of the ninth against Danny Coulombe, when Yainer Diaz delivered a double worth plus 17.5 percentage points followed immediately by Mauricio Dubón's walk-off single, which added another plus 16.4 percentage points and plated the winning run.
Among individual performers, Peña led all batters with a plus 22.0% WPA and 0.9 RE24, while Dubón finished at plus 16.4% WPA and Diaz contributed plus 12.8% WPA and 0.3 RE24. On the pitching side, Kyle Bradish was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting plus 34.9% WPA, followed by Cristian Javier at plus 16.8% and closer Ryan Pressly at plus 13.5%, with Pressly finishing off Baltimore in the ninth to complete the two-game comeback.