New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Miami Marlins an 8-3 defeat at loanDepot park on September 20, 2023, steadily pulling away from a team the DiamondIQ model had opened as a 59 percent favorite. New York scored in five of nine innings and committed no errors against a Miami club that made two, building the kind of methodical lead that rendered the home side's pre-game advantage meaningless by the final out.

The game's most consequential sequence began in the third inning, when Ronny Mauricio delivered a single off Eury Pérez that swung win probability 13.8 percent in the Mets' favor, establishing the tone for New York's offensive attack. Miami showed signs of life in the fifth, when Xavier Edwards grounded into a double play off Kodai Senga that shifted probability 12.2 percent against the Marlins' own chances, effectively extinguishing a potential rally. Josh Bell answered in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Senga worth 11.2 percent in win probability, but Mark Vientos had already countered in the top half with a home run off George Soriano valued at 10.9 percent, and Pete Alonso added a single off Soriano in the seventh worth another 10.7 percent swing that pushed the margin beyond reach.

Vientos finished as the Mets' most impactful bat by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, posting a plus-14.5 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24, while Mauricio contributed plus-12.5 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.9 RE24. Jorge Soler added plus-10.2 percent WPA to round out New York's top offensive contributors. On the mound, Kodai Senga was the game's most valuable pitcher despite surrendering the Bell home run, finishing with a plus-15.6 percent WPA as his strikeout ability limited the damage and kept New York comfortably in control throughout his outing.