MLB Recap · September 19, 2023

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

BOS4
Final
TEX6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS003000100451
TEX01001220-671

The Story

The Texas Rangers defeated the Boston Red Sox 6-4 on September 19, 2023, at Globe Life Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 60% before the game to a certainty by the final out. The Red Sox threatened in the top of the third, when Masataka Yoshida's single off Nathan Eovaldi shifted win probability 17.2 percentage points in Boston's favor, and the frame produced a three-run rally that gave the visitors a lead. Texas answered in the bottom of the sixth with a two-run outburst against Mauricio Llovera, led by a Jonah Heim double worth 16.8 points of win probability and a Leody Taveras single that added another 13.2, erasing Boston's advantage and swinging the game's momentum decisively toward the Rangers.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the seventh, when Josh Jung singled off John Schreiber to extend the Texas lead, a hit that registered as the single largest swing of the game at plus-19.2 percentage points for the Rangers. A walk issued to Jonah Heim in the same inning by Schreiber added another 11.9 points, compounding the damage and all but closing the door on Boston's chances. Heim finished as the game's top offensive performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a combined WPA of plus-27.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.4, while Taveras contributed plus-16.3 WPA and Jung added plus-12.4.

On the mound, the Rangers bullpen secured the victory efficiently. Aroldis Chapman led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-19.3, followed by Brennan Bernardino at plus-14.9 and José Leclerc at plus-6.3, a trio that collectively shut down any late Boston rally and ran the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Texas win to 100 percent by the game's conclusion.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalTEX win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 59.5% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Josh Jung Single
Bot 7th · off John Schreiber
+19.2%
Masataka Yoshida Single
Top 3rd · off Nathan Eovaldi
+17.2%
Jonah Heim Double
Bot 6th · off Mauricio Llovera
+16.8%
Leody Taveras Single
Bot 6th · off Mauricio Llovera
+13.2%
Jonah Heim Walk
Bot 7th · off John Schreiber
+11.9%

Top Batters by WPA

Jonah Heim+27.5%+2.4 RE24
Leody Taveras+16.3%+0.6 RE24
Josh Jung+12.4%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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