New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the New York Mets 4-3 on September 19, 2023, at loanDepot park in a game that remained close throughout before a dramatic final two innings decided the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the night with a 60 percent home win probability for Miami, a figure that proved accurate as the Marlins ultimately held on, though not without a serious scare in the top of the ninth.

The game was largely a pitching duel through eight innings, with runs coming in scattered fashion — Miami and New York each scoring once in the third, Miami adding single runs in the fifth and sixth. The sixth-inning sequence was noteworthy, as Garrett Hampson's single off Joey Lucchesi generated a swing of plus 9.1 percent in win probability for the Marlins. The ninth inning, however, produced the game's defining moments in both halves. Brandon Nimmo led off the top of the ninth with a double off Tanner Scott, a swing worth plus 30.8 percent in win probability, and Mark Vientos followed with a run-scoring single worth another plus 11.6 percent, trimming the deficit and putting pressure on Miami. A DJ Stewart forceout halted the Mets' rally at two runs, costing New York 11.4 percent in win probability and leaving Miami clinging to a one-run lead.

Jake Burger then delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the ninth, lacing a walk-off single off Trevor Gott that swung win probability by plus 35.9 percent and pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate to 100 percent for Miami. Burger finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 37.2 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Nimmo led all Mets hitters at plus 31.1 percent WPA and plus 1.8 RE24 despite the losing effort. Jeff McNeil also contributed a plus 14.1 percent WPA performance for New York. On the mound, Andrew Nardi led Miami's pitching staff with plus 17.2 percent WPA, followed by Braxton Garrett at plus 13.8 percent, as the Marlins bullpen ultimately preserved a hard-fought victory.