Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 | 0 |
| STL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers handed the St. Louis Cardinals a 7-3 defeat at Busch Stadium on September 19, 2023, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected as the game unfolded, dropping the home side's win probability from a pre-game 42 percent all the way to zero. Milwaukee built its lead methodically, scoring in six of nine innings and never surrendering the advantage once it was established. The Cardinals managed three runs but could not sustain any meaningful rally against a Brewers pitching staff that kept St. Louis at bay through the final outs.
The fourth inning proved to be the decisive turning point, with back-to-back doubles against Cardinals starter Drew Rom erasing any competitive balance remaining in the game. Tyrone Taylor's double carried the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 11.3 percent, and Sal Frelick followed almost immediately with a double of his own worth plus 10.4 percent, the two hits combining to blow the game open with a four-run frame. William Contreras had already set the tone with a solo home run off Rom in the third inning, a swing worth plus 9.5 percent in win probability. St. Louis's best response came in the fifth, when Richie Palacios connected for a home run off Colin Rea worth plus 9.8 percent, briefly offering a pulse, but it was not enough to overcome the deficit Milwaukee had constructed.
Among individual performers, Taylor finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 12.7 percent to go alongside a RE24 of plus 1.2, with Frelick close behind at plus 11.9 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24. Paul Goldschmidt led Cardinals batters with a plus 10.1 percent WPA figure despite the team's loss, finishing with a RE24 of minus 0.1. On the mound, Abner Uribe headlined Milwaukee's relievers with a plus 8.8 percent WPA contribution, while Jake Woodford added plus 7.0 percent and Colin Rea posted plus 5.3 percent despite surrendering the Palacios home run. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Milwaukee's fourth-inning burst as the definitive sequence that rendered this contest essentially resolved well before the final out.