MLB Recap · September 18, 2023

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers: Final Score & Recap

BOS4
Final
TEX2

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS000010030480
TEX100001000250

The Story

The Boston Red Sox defeated the Texas Rangers 4-2 at Globe Life Field on September 18, 2023, completing the comeback against a team the DiamondIQ model had installed as a 59 percent pre-game favorite. Boston scratched across a run in the fifth inning to break a 1-0 Texas lead, and after Evan Carter's triple off Kutter Crawford sparked a Rangers run in the bottom of the sixth to push Texas back ahead, the Red Sox answered emphatically in the top of the eighth with three runs against Will Smith and Chris Stratton to put the game away.

The eighth inning was the decisive sequence by nearly every measure. Rob Refsnyder opened the damage with a single off Will Smith that added 14.6 percentage points to Boston's win probability, and Connor Wong followed with a double off the same pitcher worth 18.3 points, the single largest swing of the game. Adam Duvall then lifted a sacrifice fly off Chris Stratton that added another 17.6 points, and the three plays combined to functionally erase Texas's late-game standing. Jonah Heim's forceout in the ninth off Chris Martin added 12.0 points to Texas's column but came far too late to matter.

Among position players, Luis Urías led all batters with a WPA of plus-14.9 and a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Wong finished at plus-11.9 and Refsnyder at plus-10.9. On the mound, Jordan Montgomery was the standout performer with a WPA of plus-23.8, and Garrett Whitlock contributed plus-13.3 in relief. Crawford, despite pitching into a Rangers deficit, still generated plus-8.3 in win probability for Boston's side of the ledger by keeping the game manageable through most of his outing.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalTEX win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Connor Wong Double
Top 8th · off Will Smith
+18.3%
Adam Duvall Sac Fly
Top 8th · off Chris Stratton
+17.6%
Rob Refsnyder Single
Top 8th · off Will Smith
+14.6%
Jonah Heim Forceout
Bot 9th · off Chris Martin
+12.0%
Evan Carter Triple
Bot 6th · off Kutter Crawford
+12.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Luis Urías+14.9%+1.0 RE24
Connor Wong+11.9%+0.4 RE24
Rob Refsnyder+10.9%-0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

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