New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Miami Marlins 2-1 at loanDepot park on September 18, 2023, in a game that remained tightly contested through eight innings before a single swing reshaped the outcome entirely. The DiamondIQ model opened the night favoring Miami with a 59% home win probability, a figure that held meaningful weight deep into the contest before collapsing to zero by the final out. Both teams traded a run apiece in the fifth inning, with Mark Vientos delivering the key blow for New York, a single off Edward Cabrera that registered a +9.4% win-probability swing. The Mets also saw that rally stall when Luis Guillorme grounded into a double play, costing New York 7.6% in win probability at a moment they might have broken the game open.

The defining moment came in the top of the ninth, when Jeff McNeil connected on a home run off Tanner Scott that swung win probability by 34.2 percentage points, the single largest shift of the night. That blow gave the Mets a 2-1 lead and shifted the burden squarely to Miami's offense. Adam Ottavino handled that pressure cleanly, retiring Josh Bell on a groundout and striking out Jake Burger to end the game. Bell's groundout cost the Marlins 8.5% in win probability, while Burger's strikeout to close things out represented a 31.6% swing in New York's favor.

Among the standout performers by DiamondIQ metrics, McNeil finished with a +26.2% WPA and a +0.6 RE24, anchoring the Mets' offensive night. Jake Burger led all players with a +29.3% WPA despite going hitless, a reflection of how the model credited his at-bat sequencing within Miami's final-inning threat. On the pitching side, José Buttó was the most valuable arm of the game at +20.3% WPA, followed by A.J. Puk at +15.9% and Phil Bickford at +10.9%, a trio that collectively held the Marlins to a single run and kept New York in position for McNeil's decisive blow.