Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays held off the Boston Red Sox 3-2 at Rogers Centre on September 17, 2023, in a game that ended with back-to-back massive swings in the ninth inning. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at a 60% pre-game probability for a Toronto home win and closed at 100%, but the path there was anything but clean.

The decisive sequence came in the final two half-innings. Rafael Devers launched a home run off Erik Swanson in the top of the ninth, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-36.3 points and pulled Boston within one, suddenly making the final frame a genuine contest. Toronto answered immediately in the bottom half when Matt Chapman ripped a triple off Garrett Whitlock, a hit that carried a plus-35.9-point win-probability impact and ultimately drove home the winning run, sealing the Blue Jays' narrow victory. The two plays in succession accounted for the most dramatic two-minute stretch of the entire game. Earlier, Daulton Varsho had added a solo home run off Nick Pivetta in the fifth inning, a plus-11.3-point swing that gave Toronto some cushion. On the Boston side, Ceddanne Rafaela's second-inning double off Hyun Jin Ryu generated a plus-11.1-point shift, though Reese McGuire erased that momentum with a grounded-into-double-play in the fourth worth minus-11.0 points.

Devers finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-49.1 with a RE24 of plus-2.2, his home run accounting for the largest single positive swing of the night despite coming on the losing side. Chapman posted plus-37.3 WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, his ninth-inning triple serving as the winning blow. Out of the bullpen, Chad Green led Toronto's pitching staff at plus-16.2 WPA, followed by Yimi García at plus-12.2. Hyun Jin Ryu contributed plus-11.8 WPA in his starting role, limiting Boston across the middle innings despite allowing nine hits on the night.