Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Chicago Cubs 6-2 on September 17, 2023, at Chase Field, a result that was never seriously in doubt after Arizona's three-run first inning put the Cubs in an early hole they could not escape. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the game with the Diamondbacks holding a 54% win probability, and by the final out that figure had reached 100%.

The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the first, when Arizona plated three runs to immediately seize control. Chicago managed a run in each of the second and third innings to pull within 3-2, and the third inning offered a brief window of possibility — Christopher Morel drew a walk that added 7.9% win probability and Nico Hoerner followed with another walk worth 5.9% — but Cody Bellinger then grounded into a double play, a swing of negative 9.4% win probability off Ryne Nelson that extinguished the rally and effectively ended Chicago's best chance to get back in the game. Ketel Marte then sealed matters in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Jose Cuas, the single most impactful play of the night at plus 18.4% win probability, pushing the lead to 5-2.

Marte finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, contributing plus 17.0% win probability and a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Tommy Pham posted a RE24 of plus 1.3 to go along with plus 6.6% win probability added. On the mound, Luis Frías was the most valuable Arizona arm, generating plus 12.6% win probability, with Miguel Castro adding plus 7.3% and Ryan Thompson contributing plus 5.0% as the Diamondbacks bullpen locked down the final innings against a Cubs lineup that managed seven hits but left the game with an error and only two runs to show for the effort.