MLB Recap · September 15, 2023

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

BOS0
Final
TOR3

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS000000000051
TOR00300000-340

The Story

The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the Boston Red Sox 3-0 on September 15, 2023, at Rogers Centre, with all the scoring concentrated in a single decisive third inning. The DiamondIQ model opened the game favoring Toronto at 59% and finished at 100% after the Blue Jays constructed an insurmountable lead against Red Sox starter Brayan Bello. Boston managed five hits across the game but never threatened to score, committing one error while Toronto played cleanly through nine innings.

The third inning settled the contest entirely. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. delivered the decisive blow with a home run off Bello that swung win probability by 26.3 percentage points, the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. Alejandro Kirk followed with a double that added another 6.4 percentage points, pushing Toronto's run total to three before Daulton Varsho grounded into a fielder's choice that cost the Blue Jays 6.1 percentage points and ended the inning's threat. Those three plays encapsulated the entire offensive story of the game. By WPA, Guerrero Jr. finished as the top position player at plus 24.1 percentage points with a RE24 of plus 2.9, while Kirk contributed plus 5.2 percentage points.

On the mound, Jose Berrios was the central figure, finishing with a game-high plus 25.2 percentage points in WPA. He navigated a seventh-inning situation in which Masataka Yoshida singled for a plus 4.8 percentage point swing before Wilyer Abreu hit into a forceout that erased the threat. Jordan Hicks and Jordan Romano combined to close out the game, adding plus 4.5 and plus 2.4 percentage points respectively as Toronto completed the shutout.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalTOR win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bot 3rd · off Brayan Bello
+26.3%
Alejandro Kirk Double
Bot 3rd · off Brayan Bello
+6.4%
Daulton Varsho Fielders Choice Out
Bot 3rd · off Brayan Bello
-6.1%
Masataka Yoshida Single
Top 7th · off José Berríos
+4.8%
Wilyer Abreu Forceout
Top 7th · off José Berríos
-4.3%

Top Batters by WPA

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.+24.1%+2.9 RE24
Alejandro Kirk+5.2%+0.2 RE24
Masataka Yoshida+2.3%-0.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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