Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 13 | 1 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Baltimore Orioles a 7-1 defeat at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 15, 2023, collecting 13 hits while holding Baltimore to just two. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Baltimore a 54% win probability, but that edge evaporated quickly as Tampa Bay seized control through the middle innings and pushed the model's estimate to 0% by the final out.
The fourth inning was the decisive sequence of the game. Brandon Lowe's home run off Jack Flaherty shifted win probability by plus 11.3 points in Tampa Bay's favor, and Flaherty continued to be punished in the same frame as Randy Arozarena followed with a double worth plus 6.2 points and Manuel Margot added a single that moved the needle another plus 8.2 points. Tampa Bay pushed another run across in the fifth, and a four-run sixth inning put the game fully out of reach. The lone moment that offered Baltimore any recourse came in the fifth, when Isaac Paredes grounded into a double play off Jacob Webb, a swing of minus 6.6 points, but the Orioles were unable to capitalize on the reprieve.
On the individual side, Margot and Arozarena each finished with plus 1.1 RE24 to lead position players, while Lowe posted a plus 0.5 mark. Zach Eflin was the dominant force of the evening, however, posting a plus 23.7 WPA figure that led all pitchers by a substantial margin and reflected his command of the Baltimore lineup from start to finish. Baltimore's two-hit output left the Orioles with virtually no path back into a game the Rays controlled almost entirely from the fourth inning onward.