New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The New York Yankees defeated the Boston Red Sox 8-5 at Fenway Park on September 14, 2023, swinging the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston win from 54 percent before first pitch to zero by the final out. The Yankees built their margin across two decisive bursts, with Aaron Judge delivering a home run off Brennan Bernardino in the second inning that shifted win probability 16.8 percentage points in New York's favor. That frame proved pivotal, as the Yankees hung five runs on the board in the top of the second, effectively neutralizing what had been a modest home-field edge for Boston entering the night.

The Red Sox mounted enough resistance to keep the game in question into the late innings, but a DJ LeMahieu double off Mauricio Llovera in the top of the eighth — the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 21.1 points — broke whatever tension remained. Oswald Peraza then added a two-run home run off John Schreiber in the ninth, a plus 14.1 point swing that closed the door. Boston's best chances dissolved in part through self-inflicted damage: Ceddanne Rafaela grounded into a double play in the second inning, costing the Red Sox 11.9 percentage points of win probability, and Reese McGuire's groundout against Tommy Kahnle in the eighth carried a 12.9 point swing against the home side.

By the DiamondIQ model's accounting, LeMahieu was the game's most valuable offensive contributor at plus 24.2 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, narrowly ahead of Boston's Rafael Devers, who led all hitters with plus 2.0 RE24 and posted plus 20.1 percent WPA in a losing effort. Triston Casas also graded well for Boston at plus 17.6 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24. On the mound, Tommy Kahnle topped New York's staff at plus 20.1 percent WPA, followed by Brandon Walter at plus 16.9 percent, as the Yankees bullpen ultimately preserved the three-run advantage they carried into the ninth.