Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 7-4 at Citi Field on September 12, 2023, completing a game in which the DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from a 48 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The decisive sequence came in the top of the eighth inning, where Arizona mounted a two-run rally and loaded the bases, briefly threatening to change the complexion of the game. That threat was extinguished when Corbin Carroll grounded into a double play off Adam Ottavino, a play that swung win probability by 26.8 percent against the Diamondbacks and effectively sealed the outcome. Earlier, Ronny Mauricio's fourth-inning home run off Ryne Nelson had shifted momentum by 17.3 percent in New York's favor, and Ketel Marte's third-inning triple off José Buttó had given Arizona a 15.0 percent boost that briefly kept the visitors in contention.

The standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics were spread across both sides, though New York's contributors proved more consequential. Brandon Nimmo led all position players with a WPA of plus 15.9 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.3, while Mauricio finished at plus 15.5 percent WPA despite a modest RE24 of plus 0.6. Seby Zavala contributed plus 12.8 percent WPA after being hit by a pitch from Sam Coonrod in the eighth, a moment that extended Arizona's threat before Ottavino's intervention. On the mound, Ottavino was the game's most impactful pitcher by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus 29.2 percent, with Buttó adding plus 11.9 percent despite surrendering Marte's triple. The Mets won comfortably on the strength of their middle innings, outscoring Arizona 5-1 from the third through the fifth before holding off a late push.