St. Louis Cardinals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals handed the Baltimore Orioles a 5-2 defeat at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 12, 2023, overcoming a steep pregame deficit in the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Baltimore entered the night with a 72 percent win probability according to the model, but St. Louis chipped away with single runs in the first, second, and fourth innings before breaking the game open in the seventh, ultimately holding Baltimore scoreless across six of nine frames.

The decisive sequence arrived in the seventh inning, where the Cardinals and Orioles traded pivotal moments in rapid succession. Richie Palacios led off the top half with a home run off Jorge López, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at a 14.5 percent win-probability shift in St. Louis's favor. Baltimore's attempt to answer in the bottom half collapsed when Cedric Mullins grounded into a double play against Matthew Liberatore, a play that swung win probability 16.7 percent away from the Orioles and effectively closed the door on a Baltimore rally. Earlier, James McCann compounded the home side's troubles with a double play groundout in the fourth inning off Adam Wainwright, costing Baltimore another 14.7 percent in win probability, while a groundout by McCann in the second had already subtracted 12.2 percent from Baltimore's chances.

Palacios finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, contributing 24.0 percent in win-probability added alongside a RE24 of plus 1.9. Lars Nootbaar posted 15.4 percent in win-probability added on the Cardinals side, while Anthony Santander led Baltimore's contributors at 11.2 percent. On the mound, Adam Wainwright was the standout, generating 17.9 percent in win-probability added by repeatedly inducing groundball outs in key situations, with Liberatore adding 10.1 percent in relief. The model's estimate finished at zero percent for the Orioles, a complete reversal from where the night had begun.